As concerns grow over the potential closure of the vital trade chokepoint, more tankers are changing course and heading out of the Strait of Hormuz.

One notable incident occurred between early Sunday and early Monday, when at least six vessels - two VLCCs, three chemical tankers and a refined product tanker - changed course and headed out of the Strait of Hormuz, data showed.

The specific confirmed ships include:

"Damsgaard" (Norwegian flag, departed from Port Qasim, Pakistan on June 20, bound for Ruwais, Abu Dhabi)

"South Loyalty" (Marshall Islands flag, departed from Ulsan Port, South Korea on May 14, bound for Basra, Iraq)

"COSWISDOM Lake" (Hong Kong flag, departed from Zhanjiang Port, China on June 7, bound for Zirku, UAE)

"Kohzan Maru" (British flag, departed from Niigata Port on May 29, did not stop at any destination port)

"Red Ruby" (Panamanian flag, departed from Fujairah Port, UAE on June 18, but has returned to Fujairah anchorage)

"Marie C" (Marshall Islands flag, departed from Fujairah anchorage on June 22, bound for Kuwait)

All ships are in ballast, that is, empty or lightly loaded.

As of this morning, three of the six vessels – the ‘South Loyalty’, ‘Coswisdom Lake’ and ‘Damsgaard’ – have again changed course and are heading back into the Strait of Hormuz. The other three vessels are currently idling near Horfakkan and Muscat.

The number of available empty (ballast) crude oil tankers in the Middle East Gulf fell to an all-time low following the outbreak of the Israeli-Iranian conflict, suggesting that shipowners were very reluctant to enter the region. However, this trend has since reversed.

The number of available tankers has recovered over the weekend, and the number of crude oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman that have expressed an interest in entering the Middle East Gulf has also recovered from the lows of June 16. This suggests that despite recent specific diversions, the overall flow of vessels into the region is currently being maintained.

This comes after the United States attacked three major confirmed nuclear enrichment facilities in Iran on Saturday.

Iran has widespread electronic jamming, GPS jamming and location spoofing, which has heightened shipowners' concerns.

Concerns of rising tensions

Last week, the Front Eagle and Dark Fleet tankers collided near the Strait of Hormuz. After the collision, a fire broke out on the deck of the Front Eagle, which was later extinguished.

Coupled with rising insurance costs, some shipowners will simply avoid areas like the Front Eagle, which can effectively lead to partial supply disruptions if there is a lack of tankers to transport the oil that needs to be exported.

Some tanker owners may believe that China, which buys 90% of Iran's crude oil and a large amount of oil from the Middle East, is pressuring Iran not to interrupt shipping. Although oil exports are the economic lifeline of Iran and it is not in Iran's interest to stop its own exports, if it is pushed into a corner, Iran may decide to inflict as much economic shock as possible on the rest of the world.

Iran's parliament voted on Sunday to block the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian state television Press TV.

While China condemned the US attack on Iran, we have not seen China provide any form of support to Iran other than verbal support. Russia attacked Ukraine, the US attacked Iran, and now China may be emboldened to attack Taiwan.

Jakob Larsen, head of security at the Baltic and International Maritime Chamber (Bimco), the world's largest direct membership organization for shipowners, charterers, shipbrokers and agents, warned that Iran may try to disrupt commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz more broadly by attacking merchant ships. He said the attacks could use anti-ship missiles or airborne and ground-based drones.

Laying naval mines would constitute another dangerous development, but Iran’s intention to do so is questionable, as it would pose a risk to merchant ships associated with Iran and could also cause an environmental disaster if ships were damaged.

The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, is widely regarded as one of the world’s most important oil choke points. Even a temporary inaccessibility could cause global energy prices to soar, shipping costs to rise, and cause serious supply delays.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average daily flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz in 2023 is 20.9 million barrels, or about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.

Containerized trade in the Strait of Hormuz accounts for less than 4% of the global total, but Jebel Ali and Khor Fakkan ports are key hubs in the region’s global shipping network.

Most of the cargo from these ports is shipped to Dubai, which has become a cargo hub for the Persian Gulf, South Asia, and East Africa.